Saturday, April 5, 2008

Bisnis Portal

Bisnis Portal

Central and Eastern Europe (CEE), Global Recession and Foreign Direct Investment (FDI

Posted: 03 Apr 2008 05:08 AM CDT

How will the credit crunch of 2007 affect foreign direct investment in Central and Eastern Europe? What if it develops into a full scale recession in the West and especially in the USA?

It is instructive to study the effects on the region of a previous recession at the beginning of the decade (2000-2002).

The brief global recession of the early years of this decade - which was neither prolonged, nor trenchant and all-pervasive, as widely predicted - had little effect on Central and Eastern Europe’s traditional export markets.
The region were spared the first phase of financial gloom which affected mainly mergers, acquisitions and initial public offerings. Few multinationals scrapped projects, scaled back overseas expansion and cancelled long-planned investments.

According to a 2003 report by the Vienna Institute of Economic Studies, FDI flows to the countries of central Europe were halved in the first quarter of 2002, despite their looming membership in the European Union (realized in May 2004). During 1999-2003 export transactions were frequently delayed and privatizations attracted scant interest.Net FDI flows in 2003, says the EBRD, came to a mere 7.2 billion euros, compared to 22.6 billion euros in the preceding year.

The Vienna Institute erroneously predicted a particularly bleak year for Poland and a Czech economy redeemed only by sales of state assets in the energy sector. Yet its statistics failed to cover reinvested profits. These amounted to $1.5-2 billion in Hungary alone - equal to its average annual FDI.

In reality, the picture was mixed. Forecasts prepared in November 2002 by the United Nations Conference for Trade and Development (UNCTAD) showed marked declines in FDI in Moldova, Estonia, Hungary, Poland, Slovakia, Macedonia and Ukraine. Flows rose in Albania, Bulgaria, the Czech Republic, Latvia, Lithuania and Slovenia, and remained unchanged in Bosnia and Herzegovina, Croatia, Romania and Russia, said UNCTAD.

Foreign direct investment (FDI) in Lithuania grew by at least 15 percent in 2003. Its FDI stock - accumulated in its decade of independence - exceeded c. $4 billion, or c. $1000 per capita, as early as end-2002. Pace has picked up dramatically in the past six years in many second-tier investment destinations in central and east Europe, including Slovakia, and formerly war-torn Macedonia and Armenia. Of the latter’s $600 million in post-communist foreign inflows - two thirds have been placed since 1999.

Prime investment locales, like the Czech Republic, or Hungary, are still attracting enthusiastic fund managers, multinationals and bankers from all over the world. In a startling inversion of roles, Russia became a net exporter of FDI. According to official figures - which are thought to under-report the facts by half - Russia invested abroad more than $3 billion every single year since 2000. This is double the figure in 1999 and translates into $300-500 million in annual net outflows of foreign direct investment.

Moreover, the bulk of Russian capital spending abroad is directed at rich, industrialized countries. The republics of the former Soviet Union see very little of it, though Russian stakes there have been growing by 25 percent annually ever since the 1998 meltdown. Russia’s energy behemoths compete, for instance, with western mineral and oil extraction companies in Kazakhstan and Azerbaijan.

Levels of worldwide FDI declined by more than 50 percent - to c. $730 billion - between 2000 and 2001. Yet, astoundingly, the major downturn in emerging markets’ FDI in 1999-2002 had largely bypassed the region. Net private capital flows - both FDI and portfolio investment - shot up six-fold from $1 billion in 2000 to $6 billion a year later. Most of the surge occurred in the Balkans and the Commonwealth of Independent States (CIS).

According to the European Bank for Reconstruction and Development (EBRD) in its Transition Report Updates, the region grew by 4.3 percent in 2001 and by 3.3 percent p.a. the years after. In 2006 alone, eastern Europe’s GDP shot up by 6.2% and FDI flows amounted to $50 billion. This performance as projected to have been repeated in 2007. This is way more than most developed and emerging markets managed. Eight countries in central and east Europe drew rating upgrades, only two (Moldova and Poland) were downgraded.

Some countries fared better than others. Slovakia sold, in March 2002, 49 percent of its gas transport company for $2.7 billion. Slovenia booked yet another record year in 2002 due to the long-deferred privatization of its banking sector and to the sale to foreign investors of assets originally privatized to cronies, insiders and communist-era managers. The Slovenian Business Weekly correctly expected the country to draw in more than $600 million in 2002 - up 50 percent on 2001.

In the western Balkans, only Croatia stood out as an inviting and modernization-bent prospect. Yugoslavia (Serbia and Montenegro) reawakened, too. It has privatized cement companies and rationalized the banking sector with a view to becoming a preferred FDI destination. In the first 6 months of 2002, it garnered $100 million in realized deals and another $60 million in commitments.

Ironically, during the brief global recession, Romania and Bulgaria (both of which joined the European Union - EU - in 2007) were laggards, though intermittent privatization in both countries was counterbalanced by cheap and skilled workforces in their growing and labor-intensive economies. Macedonia spent those years futilely reviewing, with a view to annulling, at least 30 suspect privatization deals. This did not endear its kleptocracy to anyhow reluctant multinationals.

Per capita, FDI stock is highest in the Czech Republic ($3000), Estonia ($2600) and Hungary ($2400). These are followed by Slovenia ($2000), Slovakia ($1800), Croatia ($1700) and Poland ($1200). All, with the curious exception of Croatia, have joined the EU in 2004.

The total realized FDI in 2000-2002 in central Europe amounted to more than $50 billion, with Poland and the much smaller Czech Republic attracting the most ($14 billion each), followed by the Slovak Republic ($7 billion) and Hungary ($5 billion). The regional FDI stock comes to a respectable $100 billion.

Southeastern Europe (the politically correct name for the Balkans), excluding Greece and Turkey, attracted rather less - c. $12 billion in realized FDI in 2000-2. Croatia topped the list with $3.8 billion, followed by Romania ($3.3 billion), Bulgaria ($2.3 billion), Macedonia ($1.1 billion), Yugoslavia ($0.7 billion) and Albania and Bosnia-Herzegovina ($0.5 billion each).

Yet, the Balkans, impoverished and war-scarred as it is, accumulated a surprising $22 billion in FDI stock. According to the 2003 Investment Guide for Southeast Europe, published by the Bulgarian Industrial Forum, the share of FDI per GDP is much higher in the Balkans than it is, for example, in Russia. In 2001, the ratio was c. 5 percent in Bulgaria, 7.5 percent in Croatia and about 12 percent in Macedonia.

The former USSR as a whole enjoyed $57 billion in FDI between 1991-2002. The bulk of it went to Russia ($23 billion) and the Baltic states ($8 billion). In 1999-2002, Ukraine absorbed $1.9 billion in FDI flows - one half the receipts of the puny Baltic trio: Lithuania, Latvia and Estonia. Belarus and Moldova scarcely registered, each of them with barely above three fifths the FDI in Albania, or ravaged and precariously balanced Bosnia-Herzegovina.

The weight of FDI in the local economies cannot be overstated. Two fifths of the exports of countries as disparate as the Czech Republic and Romania are produced by foreign affiliates. In some countries - like Romania - 40 percent of all sales are generated by foreign-owned subsidiaries. The banking sectors of many - including Bulgaria, Croatia, the Czech Republic and Macedonia - are mostly owned by outside financial institutions.

Foreigners bring access to global markets, knowledge and management skills and techniques. They often transfer technology and train a cadre of local executives to take over once the expats are gone. And, of course, they provide capital - their own, or gleaned from foreign banks and investors, both private and through the capital markets in the west.

Initially, foreign investors provoked paranoid xenophobia almost everywhere in these formerly hermetically sealed polities. Deficient legal and regulatory frameworks, rapacious insiders, venal politicians, militant workers, opaque and politically compromised institutions, disadvantageous tax regimes and a hostile press obstructed their work during the first half of the 1990s.

Yet, gradually, the denizens of these countries came to realize the advantages of FDI. Workers noticed the higher wages paid by foreign-owned plants and offices. The emergent class of shareholders, invariably members of the powerful nomenclature, having sucked their firms dry, sought to pass the carcasses to willing overseas investors. Currently - with a few notable exceptions, such as Belarus - multinationals and money managers are actively courted by eager governments and keen indigenous firms.

Proofs of this grassroots turnaround in sentiment and priorities abound.

FDI is a good proxy for a country’s integration with the global economy. It is an important component in A.T. Kearney and Foreign Policy Magazine’s Globalization Index. The Czech Republic made it in 2002 to the 15th place (of 62 countries), higher than New Zealand, Germany, Malaysia, Israel and Spain, for instance.

Croatia in 22nd rung and Hungary in the 23rd slot compare to Australia (21) and outflanked the likes of Italy (24), Greece (26) and Korea (28). Slovenia was not far behind (25), followed by Slovakia (27), Poland (32) and Romania (40). Even hidebound Ukraine made it to the 42nd place, ahead of Sri Lanka (44), Thailand (47), Argentina (48) and Mexico (49). Russia lagged the rest at the 45th location.

A.T. Kearney’s Global Business Policy Council - a select group of corporate leaders from the world’s largest 1000 corporations - publishes the FDI Confidence Index. It tracks FDI intentions and preferences. Its September 2002 edition ranked 60 countries which, together, account for nine tenths of global FDI flows. The companies interviewed were responsible for $18 trillion in sales and seven out of every ten FDI dollars.

Revealingly, central and east European countries made it to the first 25 places. Poland, right after Australia, preceded Japan, Brazil, India and Hong-Kong, for instance. The Czech Republic, Hungary and Russia - closely grouped together - were found more alluring than Hong-Kong, the Netherlands, Thailand, South Korea, Singapore, Belgium, Taiwan and Austria. Russia - whose economy improved dramatically since 1998 - leaped from beyond the pale (i.e., below the top 25) to 17th place. Hungary moved from 21 to 16.

The report concludes with these incredible projections:

“Russia … could well be a target for almost as many first-time investments as the United States … China, Russia, Mexico and Poland combined … are expected to accumulate about one quarter of all proposed new investment commitments.”

This is part of a more comprehensive trend:

“Europe has become the most attractive destination for first time investments. More than one third of global executives are expected to commit investments for the first time in Europe over the next three years 2003-6 (especially in) Russia, Poland and the Czech Republic.”

A relatively new phenomenon is cross-border investments by one country in transition in another’s economy and enterprises. At four percent of Slovene FDI stock, the Czech Republic has invested in Slovenia as much as the United States, or the United Kingdom. Slovenes and Bulgarians have ploughed capital into the banking, industrial and food processing sectors in Macedonia. Hungarians in Serbia, Czechs in Romania, Croats in Slovenia - are common sights.

Traditional FDI destinations feel threatened by the surging reputation of central and, to a lesser extent, east Europe. In a series of articles he published on radio Free Europe/Radio Liberty prior to the EU’s enlargement eastwards, Breffni O’Rourke summed up Irish anxieties expressed by his interviewees thus:

“There’s a certain unease developing in Ireland as the 10 Central and Eastern European candidate countries move toward full membership in the European Union. The Irish are not unaware that the Czechs are heirs to a fine tradition of precision manufacturing; that the Poles are considered quick-thinking and innovative; that Bulgarians have a way with computers; that the Baltic nations have powerful Scandinavian supporters; and that Romania has extraordinarily low costs to offer investors. In fact, rising costs - in comparison to the Eastern candidate nations - are one of Ireland’s main worries. The question troubling the Irish is: Could incoming Eastern member states prove so attractive for foreign investment that the country would find itself eclipsed?”

According to UNCTAD, global FDI flows amounted to a record 1.5 trillion USD in 2007. Southeast Europe and the CIS (Commonwealth of Independent States) enjoyed robust, record-setting inflows, the seventh year in a row (up 41% on 2006 to a new record of 98 billion USD), emanating mainly from transnational corporations. Capital went to both extraction industries and privatization deals.

But 2007 appears to have been the swan song of FDI. Cross-border M&A (Mergers and Acquisitions) activity - the locomotive of FDI - virtually collapsed in the last quarter of 2007. Increasing risk aversion throughout the global financial system may result in the drying up of credit. Inflation - or, rather, stagflation - is again rearing its ugly head. Wildly fluctuating exchange rate won’t help, either.
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Thursday, April 3, 2008

Bisnis Portal

Bisnis Portal

The Stock Market and Economy: A Return to the 1970’s in Form?

Posted: 02 Apr 2008 05:11 AM CDT

We are entering, in my opinion, a period of economic and stock market turbulence that will affect the pocketbooks of our citizenry going forward. Commentators on financial television have been reluctant until recent days to make the analogy of the present period to the awful economic period of the 1970’s, which has been my thesis for some time.

As I have been pointing out for many months in my investment blog, at http://www.reiznersway.com/articles/index.html, the current strength in oil (reaching $100 per barrel), gold (over $850 per ounce), gold stock, oil stock and oil service stocks are mimicking in form the inflation racked 1970’s. As well, the dollar is a weak currency now, much like it was in the late 1970’s, when the Swiss franc was popularized as a hard money investment.
In the December 2007 period, unemployment stepped up to 5% and inflation has been rearing its ugly head in recent months. If unemployment continues to rise, I believe that we may find ourselves in a medium level stagflation. The combination of rising prices and a weakening economy is not a good formula for the welfare of consumers, not to mention the stock market.

The stock market has started out in 2008 on the wrong foot. I will stick my head out to say that the telltale similarities of the current gold, oil, currency markets, and inflation and potentially rising unemployment, to 1970’s market behavior leads me to the opinion that the stock market may continue downward or at least linger in a trading range in the spirit, but probably not the severity of the 1970’s. In other words, it is possible we may see a contraction in the price earnings ratio of the market.

A caveat here is that should the Federal Reserve step in aggressively to lower key rates to counter the housing and banking decline, it would be constructive for the stock market. But as has been said widely, this would put the Fed between a rock and a hard place, as the dollar and inflation levels would likely react badly to a looser monetary policy. Interest rates would rise in inflation, putting pressure on the stock market.

If it walks like a duck, then there are ways to make money on the 1970’s analogy. I have been invested in gold coins and bullion for some time and have seen the value of those investments soar. As well, I own international oil stocks and shares in an oil service company, which have done well. Even the railroads which did well in the late 1970’s have been resurging. On the other hand, we have seen bank and mortgage related stocks decline in the last few months, as I anticipated in my blog article, Bad Banks, Good Banks during a Credit Crunch: Opportunity Knocks.

Even national politics seem to be swinging back leftward, which, according to the platform of some major democratic candidates for president, would lead to more regulation, less free trade and the redistribution of wealth (an action which would not create any additional national wealth). The stock market might find itself in a bind if unenlightened 1970’s era policies are enacted after the election.

So even though the gold and oil markets have been extremely strong lately, and I have stated in my investment blog that I believed that there may be a temporary cresting of inflation hedges - the long run still appears to bode well for the oil and (especially) the gold sectors. I also anticipate writing a blog entry on the possibility of buying in the future, strong banks that have been depressed in pricein sympathy with the weak banks. So stay tuned.

Make a Fortune Buying & Selling Gold Coins

Posted: 01 Apr 2008 05:11 AM CDT

Did You Know That Many Financial Investment Experts Are Recommending Their Clients BUY Very Specific Gold Coins?

Why?

Because We’re Now At The Very Start Of Long Term GOLD BOOM - One Top Investment Bank Thinks That Gold Prices Could Increase By As Much As 400%!

Now… Find Out Exactly Which Gold Coins Could Experience A Sharp Increase In Value, Where You Can Get Them & How You Could Make A Fortune By Buying & Selling Rare & Gold Coins…NOW!
Gold has always been a highly desired commodity throughout history. But did you know that now could be one of the most exciting times to own certain types of gold coins? In fact, one top investment bank believes that gold could increase in value sharply (by as much as 400%) and some of the very elite financial advisors in the world are telling their millionaire clients to start scooping up as many gold coins that they can get their hands on. They know something that practically no-one else knows… but the good news is that you don’t have to be wealthy to buy and sell gold coins for huge profits. Nor do you have to be a coin collector or investment guru. This book will show you exactly which coins to buy (and from where) to exploit the coming gold craze.

But first, a short history on gold that may shock you…

There are some startling events going on in the world right now which gold experts are saying could lead to the biggest GOLD BOOM in history. In fact, one top global investment bank thinks that gold could see as much as a 400% rise in value from current levels (more on that a bit later). Why? Because a very specific set of economic & global conditions exist today, and the last time similar conditions existed gold prices went BEZERK. So much so that some people who owned gold were able to sell at the peak and actually buy a house with their profits. Here are a few notes on golds performance over the past few decades:

During the 1960’s investment in gold coins brought about average annual returns of 100%.

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Between 1972 and 1974 the gold coins saw increases of 350% (while the stock market was heading desperately south).

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Then between 1976 to 1980 gold brought investors an average of 300% per year.

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This very same type of gold saw annual increases of 340% between 1987 & 1989.

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The average investor keeps piling into stocks, real estate & bonds - completely unaware that gold has been outperforming their risky holdings every year since 2000 (and the last couple of years have seen double returns over stocks). But now, investment in gold coins could EXPLODE as gold prices are set to test new highs.

This is exactly why many investment experts are telling their wealthy clients to buy specific gold coins - it’s an absolutely perfect way of owning gold and benefiting from any boom in the price of gold. The exciting thing is that you do NOT need to be even remotely rich to make a fortune buying & selling gold coins…you just need to know a few simple rules that only a select few know (and would rather a guide like this was never written).

As The Price Of Gold Increases, Specific Gold Coins Could SOAR In Value…

Gold coins offer all the upside potential of the gold boom, yet most savvy investors have never even heard of it as an investment. Right now, almost no-one has caught on to the immense value of this “secret” type of gold - very specific types of gold coins. In fact you can get loads of them on eBay and the sellers don’t understand that they may be handing away a potential fortune. You’ll learn more about this inside.

But first, a quick lesson in economics - you need to know why many experts believe that gold prices are going to be heading upwards…

Why The Price Of Gold Is Going Up (And Why It Can’t Be Stopped)

Right now the U.S. government is desperately trying to fight deflation (lower prices) and it has categorically stated that it will look to prevent this at any cost. The long and short of this is that more “paper money” becomes available while the amount of gold stays constant. Can you think what this means?

The same amount of gold costs more paper dollars (or “money”) to buy.

So as the amount of money being printed goes up …#34; so gold prices strengthen. It’s expected that a significant amount of money will be printed over the next few years, and you don’t need me to tell you what that means for where gold prices are headed.

Sadly, there are even more reasons why the current gold run could well be the start of a huge bull run. Traditionally, gold has always performed strongly during times of uncertainty. I say “sadly” because as the long running war on terrorism sees no end in sight the amount of paper money needed to pay for conflicts/wars etc rises. This huge increase in paper money will only continue to peg up the gold prices.

And what do you suppose this means for those of us who own very specific types of gold coins….?

Everything You Need To Know In Order To Make A Fortune In Buying & Selling Gold Coins!

Buying and selling gold coins is not understood by the majority of people. Yet it’s simple once you know the six golden coin rules disclosed in this package. These six easy to understand rules are what some of the most sophisticated “investors” in gold coins use religiously in order to find the most valuable coins, at the very best prices. Now, you’ll know exactly what they know.

You’ll have all the information you need to hoard literally as many gold coins as you want. Here are just a few things you’ll learn about:

Exactly WHY the price of gold is set to sky rocket over the next decade. There’s more to it than what’s been shared in this letter. When you get the full picture you’re going to get chills - Gold is cyclical and it’s at special times (now) when certain events are “going on” that gold prices boom. You’ll understand in detail what these are and why we’re in that period as we speak.

How gold has performed as an investment over time - you may be SHOCKED when you see the type of returns gold has produced in the same economic conditions that exist today.

Illegal? Yes - gold coins had to be BANNED by the government at one point. Don’t worry - it’s legal to own them again now (though only the truly wealthy & investment gurus know the shocking advantages)…but you’ll discover the sensational events that led to gold coins being made illegal and why it now represents one of the biggest investment opportunities in the world today.

The FACTS Don’t Lie - Why this turn of events mean that gold prices HAVE to increase (and why investing a modest sum now could pay for your retirement home within a decade).

Ten Years Of Repression - How certain influential world bodies have been artificially suppressing the prices of secret gold for a decade…to the point where the price is now about 1/3 of it’s natural value. This can no longer be done…and no one knows just how explosive the break-out is going to get!

And that’s just to start with so that you understand how gold prices affect gold coin values…and why gold is currently at the start of a bull run.

Now for the really interesting part - the package also takes you by the hand and reveals how to buy gold coins for profits…step-by-step:

Buying Gold Coins For Profits Revealed - WHY gold coins are one of the most potent forms of gold to own in the coming gold boom. More than that you’ll get exact details of 13 very precise types gold coins that could represent the BEST opportunities for profits. You’ve heard the expression “cream rises to the top” - what you’ll have is an exact blueprint of the very best types of gold coins that you can own. Don’t even think of entering into the gold coin market without this knowledge!

Exactly Where To Get Valuable Gold Coins At The Best Prices

Yes, You CAN Buy Gold Coins On “eBay” - And yes, you can unearth gold coin bargains on eBay, but you need to follow these guidelines down to the last letter (or you may get conned instead).

The SIX Gold Coin Rules - Six simple yet incredibly important rules when it comes to buying & selling gold coins. These six points alone are worth several times the small investment of this stunning package.

Know When To Sell Your Gold Coins - Bull markets never last forever. We may be just at the start of a market that may run for two, five or ten years but you need to know when to take your profits…and that’s what you’ll learn inside.

And there’s even more:

How To Get A Guarantee For Your Gold Coin Investment.

The two most important websites to know about when dealing with gold coins.

Other little known sources where you can find valuable gold coins.

How to buy and sell rare coins that are not made of gold. Where to find them and how to ensure they are likely to increase in value.

And much more…

That’s Not All - You’ll Also Discover How To Make The Most Of The Coming Gold Boom By Learning About Other Potentially Explosive Gold Investments!

Owning gold coins is one highly potent way of exploiting the gold boom. What other methods are there? You’re going to find out some of the best ways of owning a stake in gold including:

Stocks In Gold Mining Companies - Yes, as the price of gold increases so will the value of quality gold mining (& similar) stocks. But you need to know exactly what to look out for when evaluating gold stocks. This eBook package shows you the most important factors to look for when evaluating gold stocks.

Look In….? - Discover the one country that’s currently mining gold like crazy (it’s set to be one of the top 3 gold producing countries in the world before long). There can be big benefits to buying gold stock in companies within this non-western country!

Gold Funds - Don’t trust yourself to pick stocks? This guide has been written especially for people with ZERO knowledge on stocks & investments so don’t worry. But you’ll learn about the best ways of owning the best gold stocks that have been picked by expert managers in top performing funds. Here’s how to invest in a gold mutual/investment fund so that you get the best of any gold boom while minimising the risks associated with lack of experience.

Three Additional Ways Of Owning Gold - Discover another three reliable ways of having gold against your name!

If you’re at all serious about building your wealth then this is information that you simply must have. Many millionaires have paid a fortune to get access to the very same information that’s available to you, here and now for less than a casual dinner!

It Doesn’t Matter Who You Are, Or What Your Background Is - Armed With This Information You Can Create WEALTH With The Coming Gold Boom…

So who can benefit from This Package? The answer is absolutely anyone and everyone. This package has been produced especially for those with zero gold coin or investment experience and knowledge. It doesn’t matter if you’re an office worker, a trader/investor, a student, retired or someone in between - anyone who wants to increase their wealth with gold coins can potentially benefit from this package.

The scary thing? Never have the conditions been so right for gold coins to increase in value. Isn’t it time you uncovered one of the most ancient wealth creation tactics that the world has ever known?
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